中俄仍是对手

來源：英国《金融时报》 社评

俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)昨日访华，此举仿佛是为了让华盛顿保持紧张心态，免得它过于踏实，以为自己又争取到了俄罗斯。巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)在“重新调整”美俄关系方面，肯定取得了一些进展。这位美国总统已经得到一些回报，比如俄罗斯在对待伊朗的问题上采取了更为配合的立场。但是，在美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)访问莫斯科之际，普京对北京的访问突显出，俄罗斯有着其它的选择。

的确，俄罗斯昨日忙着与中国方面签署数十亿美元的贸易协议，还扬言最终将用人民币或卢布、而非美元来结算双边贸易。普京将出席上海合作组织的总理会议，一般认为，该组织的宗旨是把美国势力赶出中亚。2005年，乌兹别克斯坦把美军从该国的一个军事基地赶了出去。在俄罗斯的策划下，今年2月吉尔吉斯斯坦也向美军下达了驱逐令，不过这一决定暂时已被推翻。

这种趋势使一些人得出结论，认为世界上最强大的两个威权国家找到了共同的目标。确实，中亚的新一轮“大博弈”似乎没有朝着有利于华盛顿的方向发展。然而，有关中国与俄罗斯利益汇合的说法，也有些言过其实。让华盛顿放心的是，事实上，莫斯科与北京更大程度上仍是对手，而非合作伙伴。与俄罗斯经济不同，中国经济仍在高速增长。最近中国展示了实力，在哈萨克斯坦以及中亚其它国家达成多宗大额油气协议。今年12月，土库曼斯坦将开始通过一条新管道向中国输送天然气。莫斯科对于中国在中亚的影响力仍有着深深的疑虑，在俄罗斯眼里，中亚是自己的“特权利益圈”。

俄罗斯还对人口稀少的东部三分之一国土极为紧张，这里只有区区600万居民，而边界另一侧的中国有13亿人口。俄罗斯和中国都乐于谈论多极世界。但双方都明白，中国对强国地位的诉求要可信得多。俄罗斯手上唯一的牌，无非是丰富的油气资源，加上核武器。俄罗斯希望在自己的东方开发一个巨大的市场，以制衡欧洲市场——而中国肯定也需要能源。不过，俄罗斯将会故意摆谱。现在还不是龙熊同床的时候。

译者/和风
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DRAGON AND BEAR

Just in case Washington gets too comfortable with the idea it has got Russia back onside, Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, was in China yesterday to keep the US on its toes. Barack Obama has certainly made progress in “resetting” the relationship with Moscow. The US president has already reaped some rewards in terms of Russia's more accommodating line on Iran. But Mr Putin's visit to Beijing, coinciding neatly with US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's own trip to Moscow, underlined that Russia has other options.

Indeed, Moscow was busy yesterday signing billions of dollars-worth of trade deals with China. It was also making noises about eventually settling bilateral transactions in renminbi or roubles, rather than dollars. Mr Putin will attend a meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a grouping whose purpose is generally understood to be to squeeze the US out of central Asia. The US was evicted from a military base in Uzbekistan in 2005. In February, it was ordered out of Kyrgyzstan after Russian machinations, though that decision has been reversed – for now.

Such trends have led some to conclude that the world's most formidable authoritarian states have found common cause. Certainly, the new Great Game in central Asia does not appear to be going Washington's way. Yet talk of a confluence of Chinese and Russian interests is overdone. The truth, comforting for Washington, is Moscow and Beijing remain more rivals than partners. China, whose economy, unlike that of Russia, is still motoring ahead, has recently flexed its muscles, concluding several big hydrocarbons deals in Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia. In December, Turkmenistan is due to start pumping gas to China through a new pipeline. Moscow remains deeply suspicious of Chinese influence in central Asia, a region it regards as its “sphere of privileged interest”.

Russia is also paranoid about the thinly populated eastern third of its landmass, home to a paltry 6m people who live across the border from China's 1.3bn. Russia and China talk merrily of a multi-polar world. But both know that China has a far more credible claim to great power status. The only cards Moscow holds are abundant oil and gas reserves, and nuclear arms. Russia would like to develop a huge market to its east to counterbalance that of Europe – and China certainly needs the energy. Yet Russia will play hard to get. It is not time for the Dragon and the Bear to lie down together just yet.